Uncertainty analysis of hydrological multi-model ensembles based on CBP-BMA method
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
mortality forecasting based on lee-carter model
over the past decades a number of approaches have been applied for forecasting mortality. in 1992, a new method for long-run forecast of the level and age pattern of mortality was published by lee and carter. this method was welcomed by many authors so it was extended through a wider class of generalized, parametric and nonlinear model. this model represents one of the most influential recent d...
15 صفحه اولModel identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty
Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to dis...
متن کاملClimate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling
Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including in CO2 emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling and impact models. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model u...
متن کاملUncertainty Analysis of Multi-Model Flood Forecasts
This paper demonstrates, by means of a systematic uncertainty analysis, that the use of outputs from more than one model can significantly improve conditional forecasts of discharges or water stages, provided the models are structurally different. Discharge forecasts from two models and the actual forecasted discharge are assumed to form a three-dimensional joint probability density distributio...
متن کاملcomparison of optimization and uncertainty analysis methods in hydrological modeling
rainfall-runoff modeling is most important component in the water resource management of river basins. the successful application of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model depends on how well it is calibrated. the degree of difficulty in solving the global optimization method is generally dependent on the dimensionality of the model and certain of the characteristics of object function. the purpose...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Hydrology Research
سال: 2018
ISSN: 0029-1277,2224-7955
DOI: 10.2166/nh.2018.160